Countries that are in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) are countries with low birth and death rates, such as Canada, Argentina, the United States, South Korea, Brazil, China, and many countries in Europe.
The DTM is a model that was developed in 1945 after Frank Notestein developed the Demographic Transition Theory that explained how fertility rates would impact the growth rate of a population.
Today, it is used to study trends in population and how events such as war or pandemics have an impact on a nation’s growth or decline.
The countries that are in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) are Canada, Argentina, the United States, China, Brazil, South Korea, and Argentina, just to name a few.
There are four stages of the DTM, although some experts argue that in some cases there are five stages.
In stage 4, birth and death rates are low as a result of natural factors occurring in the population such as industrialization and progressive changes to family lifestyles.
Table of Contents
- What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
- What is Stage 1 of the DTM?
- What is Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
- What is Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
- What is Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
- Is there a Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
- What is an example of a country in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
- Do you understand the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
The Demographic Transition Model is a model that studies population trends in every country across the globe.
The most important factors considered in the DTM are birth rates and death rates, and why those numbers are the way that they are.
Every stage in the DTM indicates where a certain country stands when it comes to those trends.
In the earliest stages of the DTM, birth rates and death rates are high, while they decline in the later stages. In the latter stages, a country’s birth and death rates are lower or are on the decline.
A country’s population trends are important for many reasons, as the population of a country and its staging on the DTM is an indicator of the health of a country.
That could mean a country with a high death rate might have a serious issue going on that could impact the world, such as the Covid-19 pandemic or pandemics of eras gone by.
This example is transitory, which means that the death rates will revert to previous conditions once these social factors pass into the nation’s history.
Every country on the map is staged somewhere on this model, but not every stage has countries in it today.
What is Stage 1 of the DTM?
The first stage of the DTM is a stage where there are high birth rates and death rates. Many countries were here prior to the Industrial Revolution.
In this era, families had many children in order to sustain their own economy on the farm, the homestead, or just to stay in survival mode in countries all over the world.
The population trend in Stage 1 of the DTM is constant, but an event such as a war or epidemic can shift a country into Stage 1 of the DTM. Stage 1 of the DTM sees growth rates that are lower than 0.5 percent.
Much of this is caused by a lower food supply and less access to quality health care.
Additionally, less access to technology that can improve the quality of the food supply and health care will put a country into Stage 1. Today, there are no countries in Stage 1 of the Demographic Transition Model.
What is Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model is one that sees a decline in death rates, but birth rates are typically higher.
Countries such as Yemen, Palestine, Afghanistan, some countries in Africa, Guatemala, and Nauru are all in Stage 2. Generally speaking, developing countries are said to be in Stage 2 of the DTM.
That is due to the fact that their food supply and their sanitation efforts are not the same as those in developed countries.
That is not to say that developed countries are going to have better rates in population trends. Instead, a country in Stage 2 of the DTM is here because of a low death rate and a consistently high birth rate.
These countries see few improvements in health care and farming methods such as crop rotation, and factors such as an increase in literacy in women will lead to lower death rates and higher birth rates.
Population surges are common in these countries, and Afghanistan is a commonly cited example of a country in Stage 2 of the DTM.
The illiteracy rate of Stage 2 countries is also very high, and it is suggested by some world leaders that this is intentional in order to keep birth rates high and death rates low for economical gain.
Progression out of Stage 2 for countries like Afghanistan occurs when women and girls are encouraged to become educated, a move that would stabilize the population imbalance of any country in Stage 2.
What is Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
Stage 3 of the DTM includes lower birth rates and better conditions in the economy. Women are more involved in the economy, and there is improved access to health care and methods such as contraception.
There is a more equal balance of population growth here, but urbanization helps to sustain population imbalances.
Contraception plays a significant role here in keeping balance in a population. When women are more involved in an economy, the economy becomes more developed and naturally, this will play a role in birth rates as well.
Women have less time for building families when they are educating themselves or working.
Families also do not have the finances for a large family of seven or eight children anymore because life is more industrialized and expensive.
Countries in Stage 3 of the DTM are often struggling to become more developed and know the importance of education and a thriving workforce.
Countries in Stage 3 include Mexico, Jamaica, Botswana, Kenya, the United Arab Emirates, India, and South Africa.
What is Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
Countries that are considered developed are in Stage 4 of the DTM.
These countries have a stronger economy, improved access to health care, and a fertility rate that averages two children per family or household.
Developed countries such as Canada, the United States, almost all of Europe, and the United Kingdom are some of the countries that are in Stage 4 of the DTM.
Here, the birth rates and death rates are low and balanced, and there may be few replacement levels when birth rates are lower.
This is a good life for a country, though a shrinking birth rate does pose some of its own problems, such as a decreased labor force.
In Stage 4, countries might see more health issues such as obesity, but industrialization can help to treat industrialized disorders faster than countries in Stage 2 or 3 can offer.
What is problematic here is a growing elderly population that creates both social and economic imbalances at both national and regional levels.
Still, having babies is a natural course of the human condition, and few if any countries in Stage 4 of the DTM are in true peril of losing their population to low birth rate trends.
Is there a Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
Yes, there is Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model, though it is somewhat colloquial and not an official stage.
In this stage, countries are running into an expanded version of the problems faced in Stage 4.
Here, birth rates fall significantly and there is no replacement level of the population greater than two children per family.
Examples of countries in Stage 5 include Estonia, Germany, Japan, Croatia, Greece, Ukraine, and Portugal.
It could be theorized by a Stage 5 placement that these countries do not have population growth, but that may not necessarily be the case.
They may, due to social or economic issues of their own, simply not have higher birth rates or replacement rates.
Estonia, for example, has lower birth rates due to its economic structure where having children places a financial burden on families.
In other countries such as Japan, physical space in a small nation is a key reason why families do not want to have more children.
What is an example of a country in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
The United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada are all very common examples of a country in stage 4 of the DTM.
Argentina is another example that is commonly cited as one of the countries in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model.
Argentina is used as a common example because it does not offer the same social structures that are common to the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada.
Those three countries are all countries that are very similar to each other, save for their currencies and seats used in government.
Argentina is similar, but not often considered as being much like the U.S., the U.K., and Canada.
Still, Argentina’s economy is very robust and industrialized, with some of the most improved medical and technological advancements in the world.
Urbanization is heavy in Argentina, and so is the workforce, and this by nature forces a reduction in birth rates and death rates.
Gender equality is a key factor cited for why countries enter Stage 4, and Argentina is no exception.
Still, one of the reasons Argentina is unlike the U.S., the U.K., and Canada, is because it is still a developing country with a very low GDP per capita compared to other countries in Stage 4.
Do you understand the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is a model that studies population patterns with factors specific to birth rates and death rates.
It is a multi-staged model with Stage 1 being the most serious stage of all with high death rates and high death rates.
At the end of the model, countries in Stage 4 of the DTM have a balance between death rates and birth rates with very low birth rates.
Many developed countries such as the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom are in Stage 4 of the DTM. However, Argentina, an industrialized but still developing country, is also in Stage 4.
Do you understand the impacts of population trends on the DTM and why these countries are in Stage 4? What stage is your country in?
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FAQs
What is Stage 4 of demographic transition model? ›
In Stage 4, birth and death rates are both low, stabilizing the population. These countries tend to have stronger economies, higher levels of education, better healthcare, a higher proportion of working women, and a fertility rate hovering around two children per woman. Most developed countries are in Stage 4.
What is a stage 4 country? ›Stage four is the low stationary phase. With countries in stage 4, the birth rates get lower, while death rates start to rise as people are getting older. The natural increase rates (NIR) in these countries are close to zero.
Why is Canada in Stage 4? ›The birth rates are decreasing and the death rates are increasing and it appears that Canada is in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model. The birth rates started to decrease between 1970 and 1980,then increase just a little in 1990 and decreases once again.
Why is Brazil in Stage 4? ›In this post we'll explore how high rates of urbanization, higher education levels for women, and access to affordable contraception have decreased Brazil's fertility rate and pushed it from the DTM's stage 3 into DTM stage 4.
Which of the following is the 4th stage of the demographic transition quizlet? ›There are four stages in the demographic transition. Low growth, high growth, moderate growth, and low growth.
Which of the following three countries best represent Stage 4 of demographic transition? ›Countries that have undergone their industrial revolution and have adequate public health and education infrastructure such as Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom are in Stage 4 of demographic transition.
What are examples of stage 4 countries? ›Today, some countries that are considered Stage 4 DTM include China, Argentina, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Singapore, South Korea, the United States, and most countries within Europe.
Is France a Stage 4 country? ›The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) shows how birth and death rate affect population. Stage 4 of the model is called the 'low fluctuating' stage and reflects the current situation of EMDCs such as France and the UK.
Is Russia a stage 4 country? ›Demographic Transition Model
Russia does not have declining birth rates and low death rates that would classify it as stage 3. Since it's not stage 4 with low birth and death rates Russia could possibly be the futuristic stage 5. If this was true it means Stage 5 would have low birth rates and increasing death rates.
Demographic Transition Model:
Italy is currently in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). Stage 4 is characterized as having low birth rates, low death rates, and a low Population Growth Rate (PGR), causing the population to stabilize.
Why is Italy in Stage 4 of the DTM? ›
Italy is currently in Stage Four of the Demographic Transition Model. They currently have a -0.1 Rate of Natural Increase. This is caused by many contributing factors: a low CBR and a higher CDR (due to the majority of the population being older). Paired with emigration, the country is reducing its population growth.
What stage is Japan in the demographic transition model? ›In recent years a few countries, primarily in Eastern and Southern Europe, have reached a negative rate of natural increase as their death rates are higher than their birth rates. Possible examples of Stage 5 countries are Croatia, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Japan, Portugal and Ukraine.
Is Switzerland a stage 4 country? ›Switzerland is at Stage 4. Switzerland is categorized as an MEDC (More Economically Developed Country).
What stage is Mexico in the Demographic Transition Model? ›As such, Stage 3 is often viewed as a marker of significant development. Examples of Stage 3 countries are Botswana, Colombia, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates, just to name a few.
What are the characteristics of the fourth stage of transition? ›The fourth stage of demographic transition is characterised by a low birth rate and a low death rate of population, leading to a stationary population.
Why is Afghanistan a stage 2 country? ›Afghanistan is in Stage 2 due to the rise in population caused by a decline in the Crude Death Rate (14) while the Crude Birth Rate (38) remains high.
What stage is the US in the demographic transition model quizlet? ›The US is in stage four of the demographic transition model. This means they have a low CBR and CDR with a steady or increasing natural increase rate.
Which country travels through the fourth stage of transition theory? ›Very few countries—Sweden, Norway and Switzerland — are passing through Stage 4. So, in the fourth stage of demographic transition, fertility rate and mortality rate change markedly. Stage 1: Birth rate and death rate are both high and about same.
What countries are an example of the demographic transition model? ›The extent to which it applies to less-developed societies today remains to be seen. Many countries such as China, Brazil and Thailand have passed through the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) very quickly due to fast social and economic change.
What countries are in the demographic transition model? ›DTM has been validated primarily in Europe, Japan and North America where demographic data exists over centuries. The model was developed after studying the experiences of countries in Western Europe and North America. Conditions might be different for LEDCs in different parts of the world.
Is Denmark a stage 4 country? ›
2-19: Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.
What country is in Stage 5 of demographic transition model? ›Countries in stage 5 of the DTM have lower birth rates than death rates, which means the population total is declining, and the population structure is aging. An example is Japan where around 28% of the total population is aged over 65.
What stage is India in the demographic transition model? ›Additional Information: India is currently in the third stage of the demographic cycle. During this stage, the Death rate declines more than the second stage and birth rate also tends to fall, but population tends to grow as birth rate supersedes the death rates.
Is Italy in stage 4 of the DTM? ›(Source: Pearson Education, Inc.) Kenya appears to be transitioning from higher birth rates to lower birth rates (stage 2 moving to 3) while the U.S. is in Stage 4, (low birth and death rates, close to ZPG), and Italy is stage 5 (low birth and lower death rates, population decline).
What is the UK demographic transition? ›The population of the UK has undergone demographic transition—that is, the transition from a (typically) pre-industrial population, with high birth and mortality rates and slow population growth, through a stage of falling mortality and faster rates of population growth, to a stage of low birth and mortality rates with ...
Is the United Kingdom a Stage 5 country? ›The UK has reached the late stages (4 and 5) , when it predicts that our population size will either stay about the same or could even start to go down. The cause of this population decrease is that chosen family sizes become very small (with just 1 or no children.
Is Sweden in stage 4 of the DTM? ›Sweden is in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model.
Is Greece a stage 4 country? ›Hence the natural growth rate comes out to be 0.1% per year. At the present time, both the birth rate and the birth rate is low, putting Greece at Stage Four of demographic transition (post-transition phase).
What stage is Haiti in the Demographic Transition Model? ›Here is a demographic transition model for Haiti. We can see that Haiti is in stage 3 of growth because the birth rate is still above the death rate but both are going down. This means that the country of Haiti is starting to urbanize and is currently industrializing.
Is Spain a stage 5 country? ›Stage 5 would be countries like Japan, Spain, and perhaps Italy.
Is the UK in stage 4 of DTM? ›
Most developing countries are in Stage 3, such as Brazil. Most developed countries are in Stage 4, such as the UK and USA.
Is Japan a Stage 4? ›Japan is in the fifth stage of the demographic transition model meaning that their birth rate is decreasing, their death rate is low and their rate of natural increase is negative.
Why is Germany a stage 5 country? ›- increase in population over the age of 65 due to long life expectancy and medical knowledge. - annual net migration of 549,998 people.
What stage is Afghanistan in the demographic transition model? ›Current demographic trends place Afghanistan in the 'pre-dividend' category (the only such country in South Asia), characterized by a high fertility rate (over 4 births per woman), rapid population growth, many children, few elderly, and a high dependency ratio.
What stage is Madagascar in? ›As seen in the population pyramid, Madagascar is currently in stage two in the demographic transition and, in 2050 Madagascar will be in stage four of it's demographic transition. Stages three and four of demographic transition: Stage 3: population growth slows because birth rate decreases.
What stage is Egypt in the demographic transition model? ›Egypt is currently in the 2nd stage of the demographic transition model. In the 2nd stage, countries are in a state of ''early expanding'' population. This means that a country has a high birth rate and an increasingly low death rate: the population is expanding quickly.
Is Hungary a Stage 3 country? ›Hungary moved rapidly from Stage 2 to Stage 3 at the end of the 20th century, after the rapid political changes, and is now in Stage 4 of ET with declining cardiovascular mortality and increasing life expectancy (109).
What country is in stage 4 of the demographic transition? ›Today, some countries that are considered Stage 4 DTM include China, Argentina, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Singapore, South Korea, the United States, and most countries within Europe.
What is stage 4 epidemiologic transition? ›Olshansky and Ault [10] proposed a “fourth stage” of epidemiologic transition, “The Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases,” in which declining age-specific mortality results in a gradual shift of non-communicable burden to older ages, with underlying causes of death showing little change overall.
What are the 5 demographic stages? ›- (1) FIRST STAGE (High stationary) It is characterized by both. ...
- (2) SECOND STAGE (Early expanding) It begins with the. ...
- (3) THIRD STAGE (Late expanding) *Death rate declines further and. ...
- (4) FOURTH STAGE (Low stationary) This stage is characterized with. ...
- (5) FIFTH STAGE: (Declining)
What is Stage 5 of the demographic transition model what countries are in stage 5? ›
In recent years a few countries, primarily in Eastern and Southern Europe, have reached a negative rate of natural increase as their death rates are higher than their birth rates. Possible examples of Stage 5 countries are Croatia, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Japan, Portugal and Ukraine.
Is Japan in stage 4 of the demographic transition? ›Japan is in the fifth stage of the demographic transition model meaning that their birth rate is decreasing, their death rate is low and their rate of natural increase is negative.
Why is France a Stage 4 country? ›Demographic Transition:
France is experiencing high birth rates and low death rates. They are urbanized and modernized which would lean towards Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model.
Examples of countries in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition are Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Brazil, most of Europe, Singapore, South Korea, and the U.S.
What are the 4 stages of transition? ›The stages are shock, anger, acceptance and commitment. People's initial reaction to the change will likely be shock or denial as they refuse to accept that change is happening. Once the reality sinks in and people accept the change is happening, they tend to react negatively.
What countries are in Stage 3? ›Stage 3 offers plenty of opportunities for the population to create a strong economy, with many able citizens of working age to contribute to society's overall goals. Modern countries currently in Stage 3 include Columbia, India, Jamaica, Botswana, Mexico, Kenya, South Africa, and the UAE.
Why is Japan in Stage 5? ›Countries in stage 5 of the DTM have lower birth rates than death rates, which means the population total is declining, and the population structure is aging. An example is Japan where around 28% of the total population is aged over 65.
What are 4 examples of demographics? ›Researchers use demographic analysis to analyze whole societies or just groups of people. Some examples of demographics are age, sex, education, nationality, ethnicity, or religion, to name a few.
Is Italy a Stage 5 country? ›(Source: Pearson Education, Inc.) Kenya appears to be transitioning from higher birth rates to lower birth rates (stage 2 moving to 3) while the U.S. is in Stage 4, (low birth and death rates, close to ZPG), and Italy is stage 5 (low birth and lower death rates, population decline).